Chesapeake Real Estate 2011
We spoke with five realtors around the Chesapeake to glean an idea of where the market is heading.

Compiled by Joe Sugarman

Chesapeake Real Estate 2011Charlie Buckley, aka “Mr. Waterfront,” Long & Foster, Annapolis

2011 bargain pick: This four-bedroom, five-bath South River waterfront home is selling for $1.4 million, $300,000 off its original list price.

Predictions for 2011: I think things are taking off. Right now, the volume is up dramatically. In 2009, we did $24 million in sales. In 2010, we sold $40 million (compared to $100 million in 2006). That said, the prices do not seem to be going up. Buyers have seen we hit bottom. Now is time to cherry-pick the bargains. There’s a lot of inventory, but in six months or a year, the really good deals will be gone.

The sweet spot: A lot of people think the waterfront market is immune. Wrong. On average, it’s dropped about a third. The sweet spot has dropped, too. Almost all my sales have been under $2 million, with the bulk $800,000 to $1.3 million. In 2006, it was all $2 million to $3 million. Almost nothing in the [Anne Arundel] county is selling for over $2 million. Any volume at all is coming up from the bottom. It’s an entry-level world.

Advice to buyers: It really is a great time to buy. Prices are down and interest rates are down. Of those two things, interest rates are more important. It wasn’t that long ago that jumbo mortgages were at 7 or 8 percent. … If you bought a $1 million house several years ago compared to now, that $1 million hasn’t changed, but that monthly payment has. 


Chesapeake Real Estate 2011Hugh Smith, Chesapeake Real Estate, Coldwell Banker, Easton

2011 bargain pick: This 6.5-acre Church Creek property has a pool, tennis court, and five bedrooms. Originally listed at $2 million, it’s now $900,000.

Predictions for 2011: I’ve seen a gradual improvement tracking the national economy. Consumer confidence numbers, improvement in pace of sales. Based on the stock market, I’m encouraged. Hopefully, we’ll be seeing increased energy and calling for higher-end listings.

Where the bargains are: The bargains are in Cambridge. It’s a buying opportunity for anyone. You’ll definitely get bang for a buck. There’s tremendous value in most of the market. The lower end has been seriously challenged by foreclosures; inventory is very high.

Where the sales are: I am very encouraged by what I’m seeing in the $1 million to $2 million range. They mostly seem to be buyers coming from the suburbs of D.C., purchasing pre-retirement and retirement homes. We’re seeing some good action from the Philadelphia market, too. Most of that has been in Talbot County. Kent has been pretty challenged. Dorchester, too.

Advice to buyers: There’s never been a better time to buy. It’s astounding. Right now the waterfront values I’m seeing are once-in-a-lifetime. There’s a whole new segment of people that couldn’t afford it and now it’s laid out at their feet. But we are seeing investors stepping in. You can feel the tipping point. I tell my own buyers—you’ll only see the bottom in the rearview mirror. 


Chesapeake Real Estate 2011Mike O’Brien, O’Brien Realty, Solomons

2011 bargain pick: This St. Mary’s County bayfront property with beach was originally offered at $725,000 in fall 2009. Price now: $449,900.

Predictions for 2011: The number of people who have strategically defaulted has gone up. Short sales and foreclosures will continue to influence market value. That’s never a positive thing. I think we’ll have one more year of the same and after that a more predictable market. I think we’ve done all of the rollback we’re going to do.

Trends: The higher priced homes are slower moving. Even homes between $200,000 and $325,000 are selling but not at anything but modest rates. There’s been a little bit of price stability and a little bit of moving upward on waterfront. I think people are recognizing that low interest rates are even a better bargain than a low purchase price.

Appraisals: The issue now becomes appraisals. As prices start to move up, appraisals trail the market because they’re based on looking back in time, so they become a restraint in terms of prices increasing.

Where the bargains are: Anybody interested in a house over $500,000 can get a very good value. Virtually anywhere in rural areas where people bought large lots and built large homes seem to be the best bargain, 60 percent off the peak of what the property sold for. The other bargains are in the foreclosed properties being sold as is—houses with plumbing problems, mold contamination, etc.


Chesapeake Real Estate 2011Debbie Hileman, Hileman Real Estate, Berlin

Best bargain 2010: This waterfront rancher off the St. Martin’s River in Ocean Pines sold in 2005 for $400,000. It was listed in 2010 for $299,000 and sold for $208,000.

Hitting bottom: I’m going to be honest, I’m not sure if we’ve hit bottom yet. I’m hoping that we’re very close. Our market is more second home buyers. We got hit first and I’ll think we’ll recover last. But I’m optimistic because if you do have money, they’re some really good values out there.

Best bargains: There are some really good deals—Ocean City condos and some of the newer things built. The prices were incredibly high during the boom, but now you can get some of them at 50 cents on the dollar. 

If you can’t sell, rent: There still is a wave of bank property that needs to get blown through the market in order for us to level out here. I expect about the same for 2011. We’ve been very busy with rentals. What first started happening was that people who couldn’t sell have rented, and that created a higher supply, causing rental rates to go down. A lot of people who had short sales and lost property are becoming the new wave of [renters].

Advice for buyers: Right now (pre-season) is a really great time to buy—you don’t have competition. I’ve seen deals as much as $100,000 lower than asking. Even something priced at $200,000, people will offer $150,000. You have to have thick skin as a seller.


Chesapeake Real Estate 2011Cliff Meredith, Lacaze Meredith Real Estate Co., Easton

2011 bargain pick: The former house burned on this two-acre Royal Oak lot, leaving behind $200,000 worth of improvements, including a pool, driveway, septic, and dock on the Miles River. Priced at $1.6 million.

Prediction for 2011: If I had to guess, I’d say it’ll be better than 2010. I believe some of the higher-end markets have experienced increases. Naples, Fla., for instance, has experienced a 10 to 12 percent increase in prices. I would say overall the market seems to be moving slow but steadily upward, both in volume and price. Still, there’s no sweet spot in the market. People are still looking for bargains at any level.

Advice to sellers: I recommend they look at comps and price it to the market if they want to sell. We’re still seeing listings start at maybe what they were five or six years ago, but we’re in a different market. If it’s overpriced, the house could go for 30 or 40 percent less of list.

Advice for buyers: I’d get a good realtor and just use common sense. Look at what comparable homes have sold for. Low balling is very common today because, well, we’re still in a very unusual situation.




PEOPLE
HISTORY
SPECIAL